NFL teams are nearing the start of the free agency period, and while some standouts like Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Houston could get the franchise tag, there are other defensive linemen who could provide much-needed help to teams looking to bolster their ranks.
DE/OLB Justin Houston, Kansas City Chiefs, $1.6 million cap hit in 2014
Houston is 26 years old and coming off a 23-sack season, so it isn’t surprising that the Kansas City General Manager John Dorsey would do everything he can to keep him around.
“I think Justin Houston is a fine football player. I think what he did this year, I mean, he did a wonderful job,” Dorsey said. “Like I’ve said all along, I envision Justin being a Chief.”
According to the game charters at Pro Football Focus, Houston was the highest rated 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014, pressuring the quarterback 87 times while making 50 stops against the run.
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DE Greg Hardy, Carolina Panthers, $13.1 million cap hit in 2014
Hardy is just 26 years old and arguably the best 4-3 defensive end in the league. From 2012 to 2013, his 26 sacks ranked fifth in the league and is just five fewer than reigning defensive player of the year J.J. Watt accumulated over that span. However, he was suspended 15 games last year because of a domestic assault conviction, with the charges dropped after a settlement with the victim.
But if we learned anything from the NFL over the years, it is teams will put aside a player’s transgressions in favor of a low-risk, high-reward contract.
DT Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions, $22.4 million cap hit in 2014
Suh was the third-highest-rated defensive tackle by Pro Football Focus but is unlikely to stay in Detroit under the franchise tag, which would pay him $26.9 million for one season.
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“It would hurt any team to lose a player like that and the team that would end up getting a guy like that immediately becomes a lot better,” Buccaneers Coach Lovie Smith said during the combine. “Simple as that. He’s one of the best players in the league.”
But with Suh looking to become the NFL’s highest-paid defensive player, he will not provide near the value he would be paid next season:
DE Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants, $4.6 million cap hit in 2014
Pierre-Paul had 12.5 sacks last season and was credited with another 47 hits and hurries over 543 pass-rushing snaps. However, it is unlikely he hits the market.
Giants will use their franchise tag on DE Jason Pierre-Paul if the two sides fail to reach a long-term deal by March 2, per team source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 23, 2015DE Jerry Hughes, Buffalo Bills, $4.0 million cap hit in 2014
Hughes was drafted in the first round of the 2010 draft by the Indianapolis Colts but didn’t flourish until he joined the Bills in 2013. In two seasons with Buffalo, he sacked the quarterback 20 times and was part of one of the best defensive lines in football. And with such few pass-rushers available, the Bills are looking to sign him long term while avoiding the franchise tag.
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“We’re trying to avoid that [the tag], because we’re trying to get him long term for sure and keep everybody on the same page so Hughes and his representative felt like, ‘Hey, we got a good deal,’ and we say, as the Buffalo Bills, we got a good deal,” General Manager Doug Whaley said.
Also adding to Hughes’s value is his ability to stop the run. Over 268 rushing snaps he made 17 stops, which earned him the eighth highest PFF rating.
OLB Brandon Graham, Philadelphia Eagles, $3.4 million cap hit in 2014
Graham is reportedly seeking a four-year deal in the $30 million neighborhood, with $20 million guaranteed. That would put him in the upper echelon of outside linebackers.
In 2014, Graham finished first overall among 3-4 outside linebackers (playing a minimum of 25 percent of their team’s pass-rushing snaps) in Pro Football Focus’ Pass Rushing Productivity, which measures pressure created on a per snap basis with weighting toward sacks. Graham recorded a total of 51 pressures on just 225 pass rush snaps and made 17 stops against the run, and his loss would create a huge hole on the Eagles’ defense.
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DT Pernell McPhee, Baltimore Ravens, $0.7 million cap hit in 2014
McPhee, PFF’s No. 2 rated 3-4 outside linebacker, was credited with 64 sacks, hits and hurries on opposing quarterbacks and that’s going to parlay into a huge salary increase from any number of potential suitors.
McPhee is expected to command an annual salary between $8 million and $10 million when free agency begins March 10, according to NFL sources. Among the teams regarded as potential fits for McPhee: the Oakland Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts.
Versatility adds to McPhee’s value: he lined up on the left and right side plus took snaps as a nose tackle and defensive end.
DT Jared Odrick, Miami Dolphins, $2.8 million cap hit in 2014
The Dolphins want Odrick back, but price appears to be a sticking point.
I’ve been told Odrick’s camp, meanwhile, is certain their client will also get a deal whose floor is $6 million a year before free agency is over because Odrick has proven himself valuable as either a 4-3 defensive tackle or 3-4 defensive end.
Odrick ranked 23rd among defensive tackles in Win Probability Added Plus, which is the sum of win probability added on plays deemed to be positive for their team.
There is likely to be a strong correlation between a defender’s visible positive impact and his overall net impact. In other words, we should expect better defenders to tend to have both more positive plays and fewer negative plays. This is because of the symmetric nature of the distribution of human performance.
For a team that misses on Suh, Odrick could be a more cost-effective Plan B.
DT Terrance Knighton. Denver Broncos, $2.8 million cap hit in 2014
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Knighton was rated higher than Odrick overall, but more for his ability to stop the run than his pass-rushing prowess. He was tied for 17th in run stops (18) among 48 defensive tackles who played at least half of their team’s run snaps, however, there is questions as to whether he would fit in new coordinator Wade Phillips’ 3-4 scheme.
DE/OLB Jason Worilds, Pittsburgh Steelers, $9.7 million cap hit in 2014
The Virginia Tech alum started all 16 games for Pittsburgh, tallying 59 tackles, 7.5 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble. The 26-year-old pressured the quarterback 50 times from the left side over 289 pass-rush snaps, a number surpassed by just three other 3-4 outside linebackers.
DT Nick Fairley, Detroit Lions, $3.1 million cap hit in 2014
A knee injury limited Fairley to just eight games, but not before he was was demoted for gaining weight during the preseason. And then there were some off-the-field issues as well.
However, he still provides value: PFF rated him as the 18th best defensive tackle despite playing just 297 snaps.
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