South Carolina, a No. 7 seed, is this year’s surprise Final Four team.
Before their four-game NCAA tournament run, the Gamecocks had not won a tournament game since 1973. Some didn’t even think the program deserved an at-large selection, having lost six of its final nine games heading into Selection Sunday. Yet after three-straight upsets of No. 2 Duke, No. 3 Baylor and No. 4 Florida, South Carolina is in the Final Four for the first time in the school’s history.
If its defense can hold up, it will play for a national title.
giiiiiiirl. They've gotta stop sleeping on us!
— University of South Carolina (@UofSC) March 25, 2017Heading into the NCAA tournament, South Carolina held opponents to 88.7 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for strength of schedule, the third-best defensive effort in the nation. Only Virginia (87.1) and the Gamecocks next opponent, No. 1 Gonzaga (87.8), were better. Over the past four games, South Carolina continued to neutralize opponents, with three of the four teams faced ranking in the top 25 of Pomeroy’s offensive rating. It didn’t matter, as the Gamecocks held them to 39.4 percent shooting with a 20.2 percent forced turnover rate while allowing them to score just over a third of the time (36.8 percent of possessions against).
Against Duke, South Carolina outscored the Blue Devils 65-51 in the second half, stifling them at the three-point line (5 for 8 in the first half, 5 for 19 in the second) and forcing them into 18 turnovers.
It was more of the same against Florida: 16 forced turnovers and 7 for 26 (26.9 percent) from the three-point line, significantly lower than the Gators’ success rate heading into this matchup (34 percent), giving the Gamecocks their third straight victory in which they were trailing at the half.
These extra possessions generated by turnovers help fuel an offense that is taking it to another level. After scoring a below-average 86.2 points per 100 possessions during the regular season and Southeastern Conference tournament, per Synergy Sports, the Gamecocks scored 100.3 points per 100 in their run to the Final Four, led by Sindarius Thornwell, the SEC player of the year.
Thornwell, a senior, is shooting 50 percent from the field (42.3 percent from beyond the arc) and averaging 25.8 points with 7.5 rebounds per game in the tournament — all better numbers than his regular season totals.
If its defense can hold up, South Carolina will join Connecticut (2014) as the only seventh-seeded teams to ever play for the national title.
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